Global Aluminium Market Overview – May 2025 Prices and Supply
In 2025, the global aluminum market has experienced notable fluctuations. The average aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has hovered around $2,400 per metric ton. However, forecasts vary depending on regional and economic factors.
Analysts at Reuters suggest that global supply constraints could drive prices up to $2,573 per ton. Conversely, Goldman Sachs forecasts a decline to $2,000 per ton in Q3, ending the year around $2,300 due to weaker global growth and increased trade tariffs.
China, the world’s largest aluminum producer, continues to enforce a strict 45 million ton annual production cap. This limitation, along with declining output in certain regions, has helped stabilize prices.
Demand and Applications Global demand for aluminum has seen moderate growth in 2025. In China, the electric vehicle (EV) boom and increased solar panel manufacturing have contributed significantly to domestic consumption. China remains the central driver of global aluminum demand, especially in emerging technologies.
Meanwhile, demand in Europe and the United States has been dampened by slowed construction and industrial activity. In the U.S., market uncertainty has been fueled by high interest rates, import tariffs, and weaker industrial orders. Key downstream sectors such as automotive and aerospace are also growing more slowly compared to previous years.
Sustainability and Recycling Environmental regulations and decarbonization goals have accelerated the industry’s shift toward low-carbon production and more efficient recycling. Recycling aluminum consumes only about 5% of the energy required for primary production and is becoming a key strategy globally.
It is estimated that demand for recycled aluminum will triple by 2050. The current global recycling rate is approximately 76%, and many producers are investing in this value chain to reduce costs and meet sustainability requirements.
Risks and Opportunities The aluminum market in 2025 faces a number of risks, including weaker global economic growth, persistent inflation, high interest rates, escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and supply volatility due to energy issues—especially in China, where drought has affected hydropower and, consequently, smelter output.
At the same time, the market presents strong opportunities. Rising demand from EV manufacturing, solar energy, and energy storage systems continues to support long-term growth. Furthermore, companies investing in sustainable production and circular economy practices are gaining a competitive edge globally.
Sources: Reuters –
“Aluminium is base metals analysts’ bull pick for 2025” https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/aluminium-is-base-metals-analysts-bull-pick-2025-andy-home-2025-02-04
Reuters – “Goldman Sachs cuts aluminium price forecast on weaker growth outlook” https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/goldman-sachs-cuts-aluminium-price-forecast-weaker-growth-outlook-2025-04-14
S&P Global – “Uncertainty clouds 2025 US aluminum market” https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/011725-us-aluminum-series-uncertainty-clouds-2025-us-aluminum-market
Bizongo – “Aluminium Price Trends & What to Expect in 2025” https://www.bizongo.com/blog/aluminium-price-trends-price-overview-and-what-to-expect-in-2025
Waste Management World – “Aluminium Recycling: A Shining Solution Under Pressure” https://waste-management-world.com/resource-use/aluminium-recycling-a-shining-solution-under-pressure
ING Think – “Aluminium deficit to support prices in 2025” https://think.ing.com/articles/aluminium-deficit-to-support-prices-2025 GlobeNewswire – “Global Aluminium Market Poised for Growth Amid Rising Demand” https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/03/03/3035207/0/en/Global-Aluminium-Market-Poised-for-Growth-Amid-Rising-Demand-in-Automotive-and-Green-Energy-Sectors-Future-Market-Insights-Inc.html